TABLE 5.

General Pediatrician Current Supply, Projected Supply, and Requirements

SupplyDateChildren per General Pediatrician*General Pediatricians per 100 000 Children*No. of General Pediatricians
Current
    Shipman et al141
        Population age <18 y200018865338 457
        Population age <20 y200020414938 457
    Kletke et al175 (estimated)200041 600
Projected
    Shipman et al141
        Population age < 18 y201013907252 169
        Population age < 20 y201015556452 169
        Population age < 18 y202012937762 900
        Population age < 20 y202013627362 900
    Kletke et al175 (ratios assume age <18 y)201014087151 500
Estimated Requirements
Population-based
    GMENAC1511980203449NA
    Abt Associates and the Bureau of Health Professions1761991243041NA
Practice-based
    AAP PROS Network1661996140071NA
    Managed care staffing
    Group Health Association of America178 (age not stated)1993222245NA
    New England IPA (0–17 y)130077NA
    33 HMOs (0–14 y)1992115786NA
    Group-model HMO 1 (age not stated)112589NA
    Group-model HMO 2 (age not stated)175057NA
    Group-model HMO 3 (age not stated)120083NA
FOPE II “ideal”107
    High2000120083NA
    Low2000140071NA
  • PROS indicates Pediatric Research in Office Settings; IPA, independent practice association; NA, not applicable.

  • * Assumes middle-US estimates.

  • These practice-based measures need to be viewed cautiously. They assume that all children are cared for exclusively by pediatric practices and that most have employer-based insurance.