APPENDIX 1

Parameter Values for Decision-Analytical Markov Model: Transitional Probabilities

Probability CodeProbability DescriptionWeeks' Gestational Age at BirthType of Probability DistributionBest Estimate, α/nLow Estimate (Low 95% CI)High Estimate (High 95% CI)αβnSource/Reference
Probability of live birth
    pGA23Live birth23β.0003.0000.0008204591 753591 957ONS6
    pGA24Live birth24β.0009.0001.0017529591 428591 957ONS6
    pGA25Live birth25β.0010.0002.0018589591 368591 957ONS6
    pGA26Live birth26β.0012.0003.0021715591 242591 957ONS6
    pGA27Live birth27β.0013.0004.0022779591 178591 957ONS6
    pGA28Live birth28β.0017.0007.00281009590 948591 957ONS6
    pGA29Live birth29β.0017.0006.0027978590 979591 957ONS6
    pGA30Live birth30β.0023.0011.00351346590 611591 957ONS6
    pGA31Live birth31β.0027.0014.00401596590 361591 957ONS6
    pGA32Live birth32β.0040.0024.00562360589 597591 957ONS6
    pGA33Live birth33β.0056.0037.00753306588 651591 957ONS6
    pGA34Live birth34β.0089.0065.01135264586 693591 957ONS6
    pGA35Live birth35β.0139.0110.01698251583 706591 957ONS6
    pGA36Live birth36β.0262.0221.030215 493576 464591 957ONS6
    pGAtermLive birthTermβ.9283.9218.9349549 53842 419591 957ONS6
Probability of death in the delivery room or during transfer (as % of live births)
    plbdead23Die in delivery room23β.6359.5863.6827241138379Wood et al31
    plbdead24Die in delivery room24β.2199.1813.264184298382Wood et al31
    plbdead25Die in delivery room25β.1580.1264.195867357424Wood et al31
    plbdead26Die in delivery room26β.1076.0683.165617141158Larroque et al32
    plbdead27Die in delivery room27β.0478.0269.083611219230Larroque et al32
    plbdead28Die in delivery room28β.0105.0036.03053282285Larroque et al32
    plbdead29Die in delivery room29β.0147.0057.03714269273Larroque et al32
    plbdead30Die in delivery room30β.0191.0097.03728411419Larroque et al32
    plbdead31Die in delivery room31β.0054.0019.01593548551Larroque et al32
    plbdead32Die in delivery room32β.0013.0002.00721777778Larroque et al32
    plbdead33Die in delivery room33β.0003.0003.0003Extrapolation
    plbdead34Die in delivery room34β.0001.0001.0001Extrapolation
    plbdead35Die in delivery room35β.0000.0000.0000Extrapolation
    plbdead36Die in delivery room36β.0000.0000.0000Extrapolation
    plbdeadtermDie in delivery roomTermβ.0000.0000.0000Extrapolation
Probability admitted to neonatal care (as % of live births that did not die in delivery room)
    pnicu23Admitted to NC23Point estimate1.00001380138Wood et al31
    pnicu24Admitted to NC24Point estimate1.00002980298Wood et al31
    pnicu25Admitted to NC25Point estimate1.00003570357Wood et al31
    pnicu26Admitted to NC26Point estimate1.00001410141Larroque et al32
    pnicu2727Point estimate1.00002190219Larroque et al32
    pnicu28Admitted to NC28Point estimate1.00002820282Larroque et al32
    pnicu29Admitted to NC29Point estimate1.00002690269Larroque et al32
    pnicu30Admitted to NC30Point estimate1.00004110411Larroque et al32
    pnicu31Admitted to NC31Point estimate1.00005480548Larroque et al32
    pnicu32Admitted to NC32Point estimate1.00007770777Larroque et al32
    pnicu33Admitted to NC33β.8422.8356.8488Interpolation
    pnicu34Admitted to NC34β.6843.6790.6897Interpolation
    pnicu35Admitted to NC35β.5265.5224.5306Interpolation
    pnicu36Admitted to NC36β.3686.3658.3715Interpolation
    pnicutermAdmitted to NCTermβ.0530.0525.0534Ringborg et al22
Probability discharged alive from neonatal care (as % of neonatal care admissions)
    pnicusur23Discharged from NC23β.2051.0784.331983139Trent NN
    pnicusur24Discharged from NC24β.3873.3072.46745587142Trent NN
    pnicusur25Discharged from NC25β.6554.5788.73209751148Trent NN
    pnicusur26Discharged from NC26β.7595.7051.813918057237Trent NN
    pnicusur27Discharged from NC27β.8195.7733.865821848266Trent NN
    pnicusur28Discharged from NC28β.8943.8611.927429635331Trent NN
    pnicusur29Discharged from NC29β.9462.9252.967142224446Trent NN
    pnicusur30Discharged from NC30β.9717.9581.985455016566Trent NN
    pnicusur31Discharged from NC31β.9638.9493.978361323636Trent NN
    pnicusur32Discharged from NC32β.9823.9742.9904998181016Trent NN
    pnicusur33Discharged from NC33β.9826.9749.9903Extrapolation
    pnicusur34Discharged from NC34β.9829.9752.9906Extrapolation
    pnicusur35Discharged from NC35β.9833.9756.9910Extrapolation
    pnicusur36Discharged from NC36β.9836.9759.9913Extrapolation
    pnicusurtermDischarged from NCTermβ.9839.9762.9916Extrapolation
Probability of death between hospital discharge and 2 y (as % of those discharged alive from neonatal care)
    p2yrdead23Death between discharge and 2 y23β.0357.0000.104512728Marlow et al18
    p2yrdead24Death between discharge and 2 y24β.0200.0000.0474298100Marlow et al18
    p2yrdead25Death between discharge and 2 y25β.0161.0000.03423183186Marlow et al18
    p2yrdead26Death between discharge and 2 y26β.0139.0000.040917172Doyle et al14
    p2yrdead27Death between discharge and 2 y27β.0128.0000.037817778Doyle et al14
    p2yrdead28Death between discharge and 2 y28β.0000.0000.000003535ORLS
    p2yrdead29Death between discharge and 2 y29β.0000.0000.000004242ORLS
    p2yrdead30Death between discharge and 2 y30β.0351.0000.082925557ORLS
    p2yrdead31Death between discharge and 2 y31β.0000.0000.000008383ORLS
    p2yrdead32Death between discharge and 2 y32β.0000.0000.00000117117ORLS
    p2yrdead33Death between discharge and 2 y33β.0362.0051.06745133138ORLS
    p2yrdead34Death between discharge and 2 y34β.0035.0000.01051281282ORLS
    p2yrdead35Death between discharge and 2 y35β.0047.0000.01122422424ORLS
    p2yrdead36Death between discharge and 2 y36β.0033.0000.00703916919ORLS
    p2yrdeadterDeath between discharge and 2 yTermβ.0014.0010.00175539 72639 781ORLS
Probability of disability at 2 y (as % of survivors)
    pno23No disability at 2 y23β.2000.0362.6245145VICSG 91–92
    pmild23Mild disability at 2 y23β.4000.1176.7693235VICSG 91–92
    pmod23Moderate disability at 2 y23β.2000.0362.6245145VICSG 91–92
    psev23Severe disability at 2 y23β.2000.0362.6245145VICSG 91–92
    pno24No disability at 2 y24β.3333.1719.546371421VICSG 91–92
    pmild24Mild disability at 2 y24β.3333.1719.546371421VICSG 91–92
    pmod24Moderate disability at 2 y24β.1905.0767.400041721VICSG 91–92
    psev24Severe disability at 2 y24β.1429.0498.346431821VICSG 91–92
    pno25No disability at 2 y25β.4706.3405.6048242751VICSG 91–92
    pmild25Mild disability at 2 y25β.2549.1555.3887133851VICSG 91–92
    pmod25Moderate disability at 2 y25β.2157.1249.3463114051VICSG 91–92
    psev25Severe disability at 2 y25β.0588.0202.159234851VICSG 91–92
    pno26No disability at 2 y26β.5735.4552.6840392968VICSG 91–92
    pmild26Mild disability at 2 y26β.2206.1385.3326155368VICSG 91–92
    pmod26Moderate disability at 2 y26β.1029.0508.197676168VICSG 91–92
    psev26Severe disability at 2 y26β.1029.0508.197676168VICSG 91–92
    pno27No disability at 2 y27β.6486.5350.7476482674VICSG 91–92
    pmild27Mild disability at 2 y27β.2297.1487.3375175774VICSG 91–92
    pmod27Moderate disability at 2 y27β.0811.0377.165866874VICSG 91–92
    psev27Severe disability at 2 y27β.0405.0139.112537174VICSG 91–92
    pno28No disability at 2 y28β.6862.6388.7300270124Predicted
    pmild28Mild disability at 2 y28β.2091.1725.251086325Predicted
    pmod28Moderate disability at 2 y28β.0633.0424.093523335Predicted
    psev28Severe disability at 2 y28β.0414.0253.066915353Predicted
    pno29No disability at 2 y29β.7199.6738.7619285111Predicted
    pmild29Mild disability at 2 y29β.1938.1585.234880331Predicted
    pmod29Moderate disability at 2 y29β.0518.0330.080318330Predicted
    psev29Severe disability at 2 y29β.0345.0200.058912344Predicted
    pno30No disability at 2 y30β.7444.6982.785828297Predicted
    pmild30Mild disability at 2 y30β.1818.1467.223171319Predicted
    pmod30Moderate disability at 2 y30β.0440.0268.071415324Predicted
    psev30Severe disability at 2 y30β.0298.0164.053510335Predicted
    pno31No disability at 2 y31β.7626.7157.803827285Predicted
    pmild31Mild disability at 2 y31β.1724.1372.214563303Predicted
    pmod31Moderate disability at 2 y31β.0386.0226.065113320Predicted
    psev31Severe disability at 2 y31β.0264.0139.04969328Predicted
    pno32No disability at 2 y32β.7763.7287.817626175Predicted
    pmild32Mild disability at 2 y32β.1651.1295.208057287Predicted
    pmod32Moderate disability at 2 y32β.0347.0197.060411318Predicted
    psev32Severe disability at 2 y32β.0240.0122.04678323Predicted
    pno33No disability at 2 y33β.7868.7386.828125168Predicted
    pmild33Mild disability at 2 y33β.1592.1234.203052273Predicted
    pmod33Moderate disability at 2 y33β.0318.0176.056910317Predicted
    psev33Severe disability at 2 y33β.0222.0109.04457320Predicted
    pno34No disability at 2 y34β.7949.7462.836424363Predicted
    pmild34Mild disability at 2 y34β.1546.1186.199048262Predicted
    pmod34Moderate disability at 2 y34β.0297.0161.054210317Predicted
    psev34Severe disability at 2 y34β.0208.0100.04287318Predicted
    pno35No disability at 2 y35β.8014.7521.842923759Predicted
    pmild35Mild disability at 2 y35β.1508.1147.195945253Predicted
    pmod35Moderate disability at 2 y35β.0280.0149.05219318Predicted
    psev35Severe disability at 2 y35β.0198.0093.04156317Predicted
    pno36No disability at 2 y36β.8065.7569.848123155Predicted
    pmild36Mild disability at 2 y36β.1478.1115.193443246Predicted
    pmod36Moderate disability at 2 y36β.0267.0140.05059318Predicted
    psev36Severe disability at 2 y36β.0189.0087.04046316Predicted
    pnotermNo disability at 2 yTermβ.8174.7638.861119744241VICSG 91–92
    pmildtermMild disability at 2 yTermβ.1452.1063.195335206241VICSG 91–92
    pmodtermModerate disability at 2 yTermβ.0207.0089.04765236241VICSG 91–92
    psevtermSevere disability at 2 yTermβ.0166.0065.04194237241VICSG 91–92
Annual movement between disability states: ages 2–5
    nono1Remain without disabilityβ.9104.6667.82158829117VICSG 91–92
    nomild1From no to mild disabilityβ.0837.1637.31492790117VICSG 91–92
    nomod1From no to moderate disabilityβ.0057.0047.06022115117VICSG 91–92
    nosev1From no to severe disabilityPoint estimate.0000.0000.03180117117VICSG 91–92
    nodead1From no disability to deathPoint estimate.0002ONS life tables39
    mildno1From mild to no disabilityβ.1715.3050.5673222951VICSG 91–92
    mildmild1Remain mildly disabledβ.7516.2363.4901183351VICSG 91–92
    mildmod1From mild to moderate disabilityβ.0702.1102.3246104151VICSG 91–92
    mildsev1From mild to severe disabilityβ.0066.0035.103015051VICSG 91–92
    milddead1From mild disability to deathPoint estimate.0002ONS life tables39
    modno1From moderate to no disabilityβ.0263.0214.241422426VICSG 91–92
    modmild1From moderate to mild disabilityβ.1154.1650.499981826VICSG 91–92
    modmod1Remain moderately disabledβ.8040.2876.6454121426VICSG 91–92
    modsev1From moderate to severe disabilityβ.0542.0615.335342226VICSG 91–92
    moddead1From moderate disability to deathPoint estimate.0002ONS life tables39
    sevno1From severe to no disabilityβ.0000.0000.193601616VICSG 91–92
    sevmild1From severe to mild disabilityβ.0435.0350.360221416VICSG 91–92
    sevmod1From severe to moderate disabilityβ.0435.0350.360221416VICSG 91–92
    sevsev1Remain severely disabledβ.9107.5050.898212416VICSG 91–92
    sevdead1From severe disability to deathPoint estimate.0022ONS life tables39; Strauss et al40
Annual movement between disability states: age ≥6
    nono2Remain without disabilityβ.9628.8220.937610012112VICSG 91–92
    nomild2From no to mild disabilityβ.0371.0624.178012100112VICSG 91–92
    nomod2From no to moderate disabilityPoint estimate.0000.0000.03320112112VICSG 91–92
    nosev2From no to severe disabilityPoint estimate.0000.0000.03320112112VICSG 91–92
    nodead2From no disability to deathPoint estimate.0002ONS life tables39
    mildno2From mild to no disabilityβ.1399.2493.4958203555VICSG 91–92
    mildmild2Remain mildly disabledβ.8222.3979.6531292655VICSG 91–92
    mildmod2From mild to moderate disabilityβ.0378.0510.218364955VICSG 91–92
    mildsev2From mild to severe disabilityPoint estimate.0000.0000.065305555VICSG 91–92
    milddead2From mild disability to deathPoint estimate.0002ONS life tables39
    modno2From moderate to no disabilityβ.0130.0068.188912526VICSG 91–92
    modmild2From moderate to mild disabilityβ.0837.1103.420562026VICSG 91–92
    modmod2Remain moderately disabledβ.8344.3546.7124141226VICSG 91–92
    modsev2From moderate to severe disabilityβ.0687.0851.378852126VICSG 91–92
    moddead2From moderate disability to deathPoint estimate.0002ONS life tables39
    sevno2From severe to no disabilityPoint estimate.0000.0000.184301717VICSG 91–92
    sevmild2From severe to mild disabilityβ.0200.0105.269811617VICSG 91–92
    sevmod2From severe to moderate disabilityβ.0627.0619.410331417VICSG 91–92
    sevsev2Remain severely disabledβ.9151.5274.904513417VICSG 91–92
    sevdead2From severe disability to deathPoint estimate.0022.8220.9376ONS life tables39; Strauss et al40
  • ONS indicates Office of National Statistics; NC, neonatal care; NN, neonatal network; between, between; ORLS, Oxford Record Linkage Study.