TABLE 4.

Sensitivity Analyses of Variables Impacting Requirements for Health Care Services

Scenarios of Altered RequirementsAdditional Pediatricians Needed*Excess No. of Pediatricians Beyond Needs*
2000 (Base Year)201020202000 (Base Year)20102020
Baseline Projected Growth of Child PopulationReferent10 82017 686
Alternate child population projectionsLow estimate(−1725)(−4908)12 54522 594
High estimate216964568 65111 230
Adjusted for demographic shift525176910 29515 917
Market share: proportion of children’s outpatient visits that are with general pediatriciansDecreased by 50% among older children (ages >10 y)(−2798)(−2957)13 61820 643
Decreased by 20% below current share (ages 0–19 y)(−5717)(−6042)16 53723 728
Increased by 50% above current share (ages 0–19 y)57916121502911 565
100% of visits occur with pediatricians (ages 0–19 y)11 27411 915(−454)5 771
  • * “Need” implies the number required to maintain stable (year 2000) child-to-pediatrician ratios when accounting for change in demand.

  • Supply was determined by using a baseline model of FTE-adjusted pediatrician workforce growth over time.