TABLE 3.

Sensitivity Analyses of Determinants of Workforce Supply

Supply Analyses (All FTE Adjusted)No. of PediatriciansNo. of Children per Pediatrician (Middle Series Population Estimate)
200020102020200020102020
Baseline trends38 45750 49859 619204016061438
 GME-related
Current trend (annual growth at 1%)38 45751 48163 425204015761352
Limits on IMGs*38 45747 39153 630204017111598
Entry into pediatric residencies reduced by 50%38 45740 79040 902204019882096
 Work effort
20% decreased retirement rates38 45750 91460 382204015931420
20% increased retirement rates38 45750 10658 913204016191455
Doubling of retirement rates38 45748 74256 546204016641516
Productivity reduced in mid to late career38 45744 00850 979204018431682
  • * Represents a reduction in the overall number of GME positions to 110% of the number of US medical graduates entering pediatrics in 2000.

  • Retirement rates modified within all age- and gender-specific strata.

  • Productivity reduced from baseline levels by 30%, 40%, and 50% for pediatricians aged 50–59, 60–69, and 70–75 years, respectively.