TABLE 1.

Key Supply Model Variables

VariableData SourceKey Assumptions in Baseline Model
Current general pediatrician supply1999 AMA (January 1, 1999) and AOA (June 1, 1999) Physician Master FilesExcludes residents, fellows, and <20 hours per week clinical practice
New general pediatricians1999–2000 AMA Annual Survey of Graduate Medical Education2Assumes 6% of general pediatrics enter teaching, administration, and research35
IMGs1999–2000 AMA Annual Survey of Graduate Medical Education2Assumes US citizens and permanent residents remain in US workforce and 75% of foreign IMGs remain16
Death and retirementBureau of Health Professions Separation Rates (1995)Assumes upper age limit of 75 years for clinically active generalists
FTE adjustmentAAP (2000)Average weekly work hours within age- and gender-specific strata
PopulationUS Bureau of Census (2000)Middle series projection
Market shareNAMCS (1999)% visits to pediatricians by patient age: 83% 0–4 years, 72% 5–9 years, 57% 10–14 yrs, and 39% ≥15 yrs