Key Supply Model Variables

VariableData SourceKey Assumptions in Baseline Model
Current general pediatrician supply1999 AMA (January 1, 1999) and AOA (June 1, 1999) Physician Master FilesExcludes residents, fellows, and <20 hours per week clinical practice
New general pediatricians1999–2000 AMA Annual Survey of Graduate Medical Education2Assumes 6% of general pediatrics enter teaching, administration, and research35
IMGs1999–2000 AMA Annual Survey of Graduate Medical Education2Assumes US citizens and permanent residents remain in US workforce and 75% of foreign IMGs remain16
Death and retirementBureau of Health Professions Separation Rates (1995)Assumes upper age limit of 75 years for clinically active generalists
FTE adjustmentAAP (2000)Average weekly work hours within age- and gender-specific strata
PopulationUS Bureau of Census (2000)Middle series projection
Market shareNAMCS (1999)% visits to pediatricians by patient age: 83% 0–4 years, 72% 5–9 years, 57% 10–14 yrs, and 39% ≥15 yrs