TABLE 2

Assessment of the 1-Year Risk of Cigarette Smoking Initiation in 8 Scenarios (NDIT Study)

Scenarios
Drawn to Cigarette SmokingaNot Drawn to Cigarette Smokingb
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High Self-EsteemHigh Self-Esteem, Friends Who Smoke and Consume AlcoholLow Self-EsteemLow Self-Esteem and Friends Who SmokeLow Self-Esteem and Consume AlcoholLow Self-Esteem and Friends Who SmokeLow Self-Esteem and Consume AlcoholLow Self-Esteem, Friends Who Smoke and Consume Alcohol
Age, y1414141414141414
Friend(s) smokeNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYes
Consumes alcoholNoYesNoNoYesNoYesYes
Hard not to smoke when others are smokingYesYesYesYesYesNoNoNo
Feels the need for a cigaretteYesYesYesYesYesNoNoNo
Worry or stress about lonelinessNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
Worry or stress about wtNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
Feels hopeless about the futureNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
Worry or stress about relationship with siblingsNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
Worry or stress about a health problemNoNoNoNoNoNoNoNo
Has something valuable to offerYesYesNoNoNoNoNoNo
Has a positive attitude toward oneselfYesYesNoNoNoNoNoNo
1-y predicted probability of initiating cigarette smoking (SE)0.04 (0.02)0.15 (0.05)0.14 (0.08)0.27 (0.13)0.23 (0.11)0.07 (0.05)0.06 (0.03)0.13 (0.08)
Score (increasing positive score implies higher risk)−5116145243−20−299
Assessment of risk of cigarette smoking initiationLowHighHighHighHighLowLowHigh
  • a Drawn to cigarette smoking is defined by the following positive responses to 2 items: “hard not to smoke when others are smoking” and “feels the need for a cigarette.”

  • b Not drawn to cigarette smoking is defined by negative responses to both items.