TABLE 7

Performance Characteristics of the M-CHAT Within the Entire Cohort and Subgroups in Predicting Later Diagnosis of ASD

GroupSensitivity % (95% CI)Specificity % (95% CI)PPV % (95% CI)NPV % (95 % CI)
Entire cohort (n = 26 364)33.1 (28.3–38.1)97.8 (97.6–97.9)17.8 (15.0–20.8)99.0 (98.9–99.1)
Race and ethnicity
 White (n = 21 762)30.1 (24.8–35.7)98.1 (97.9–98.2)17.1 (13.9–20.7)99.1 (98.9–99.2)
 Nonwhite (n = 3638)43.1 (31.4–55.3)96.4 (95.8–97.0)19.6 (13.7–26.7)98.8 (13.7–26.7)
 ComparisonP = .04P < .001P = .47P = .19
Sex
 Male (n = 13 609)34.8 (29.4–40.5)97.4 (97.1–97.6)22.9 (19.1–27.0)98.5 (98.3–98.7)
 Female (n = 12 754)26.6 (17.3–37.7)98.2 (98.0–98.4)8.4 (5.3–12.6)99.5 (99.4–99.6)
 ComparisonP = .17P < .001P < .001P < .001
M-CHAT completion
 18- or 24-mo (n = 15 448)27.6 (21.9–33.9)97.9 (97.7–98.2)16.8 (13.1–20.9)98.9 (98.7–99.1)
 18- and 24-mo (n = 10 916)41.3 (33.4–49.7)97.5 (97.2–97.8)18.9 (14.8–23.6)99.2 (99.0–99.3)
 ComparisonP = .006P = .03P = .46P = .03
Insurance
 Medicaid (n = 5022)27.5 (17.5–39.6)97.8 (97.3–98.2)14.6 (9.0–21.9)99.0 (98.7–99.2)
 Private (n = 14 685)37.0 (30.4–43.9)97.9 (97.6–98.1)20.1 (16.2–24.4)99.1 (98.9–99.2)
 ComparisonP = .15P = .70P = .17P = .57
SES
 High SES (n = 14 165)34.6 (27.2–42.5)97.8 (97.5–98.0)14.9 (11.5–19.0)99.2 (99.1–99.4)
 Low SES (n = 11 700)32.6 (26.3–39.3)97.7 (97.5–98.0)21.3 (17.0–26.1)98.7 (98.5–98.9)
 ComparisonP = .68P = .91P = .03P < .001