TABLE 1

VAR Models Predicting Firearm-Related Mortality Among White 1- to 5-year-olds (n = 41)

Coefficient (95% Confidence Interval)
Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4
Firearm-related 1–5 y white mortality rate at t−10.475** (0.185 to 0.765)0.427* (0.100 to 0.754)0.332 (−0.025 to 0.689)0.311 (−0.054 to 0.676)
0.148a0.167a0.182a0.186a
White family firearm ownership at t−1
 Proportion with firearms0.493* (0.121 to 0.865)0.491* (0.117 to 0.865)0.467* (0.088 to 0.847)
0.190a0.191a0.194a
 Type of firearm (ref: no firearm)
  Proportion with rifle and/or shotgun only0.769 (−0.154 to 1.692)
0.471a
  Proportion with pistol and/or handgun (with or without rifle and/or shotgun)0.426* (0.026 to 0.826)
0.204a
Contextual factors at t−1
 White unemployment rate0.005 (−0.011 to 0.021)0.004 (−0.018 to 0.026)0.001 (−0.023 to 0.025)
0.008a0.011a0.012a
Characteristics of white families who own firearms at t−1
 Proportion who live in a rural area0.251 (−0.127 to 0.629)0.272 (−0.114 to 0.658)
0.193a0.197a
 Proportion parents’ education without college degree−0.290 (−0.649 to 0.069)−0.252 (−0.628 to 0.124)
0.183a0.192a
 Proportion live in the South0.326 (−0.133 to 0.785)0.239 (−0.282 to 0.760)
0.234a0.266a
 Proportion with incomes in the bottom quartile0.101 (−0.162 to 0.364)0.066 (−0.218 to 0.350)
0.134a0.145a
 Constant0.018 (−0.154 to 0.190)0.014 (−0.160 to 0.188)0.117 (−0.326 to 0.560)0.072 (−0.393 to 0.537)
0.088a0.089a0.226a0.237a
 Trend−0.001 (−0.003 to 0.001)−0.001 (−0.003 to 0.001)−0.004 (−0.008 to −0.000)−0.002 (−0.008 to 0.004)
0.001a0.001a0.002a0.003a
Model fit
R20.7590.7610.8010.804
 Adjusted R20.7390.7340.7500.745
  • t−1 refers to predicted relationship between variables in previous year with firearm-related mortality rate in current year. Trend term captures change in mortality due to average change over time. Ref, reference; —, not applicable.

  • a SE is shown.

  • * P < .05

  • ** P < .01