Percentage of Youth Predicted To Smoke by Using the Psychosocial Model (2004–2009 NYTS)

Predicted Cigarette Smoking Statusa
Actual Participant Smoking Status2011201220132014
Ever smokerb
 Never smoker/never userc5.4 (4.6–6.3)6.1 (5.5–6.9)6.9 (6.1–7.9)3.2 (2.7–3.8)
 Actual ever e-cigarette–only userd52.2 (22.3–80.7)40.7 (31.0–51.2)48.3 (36.2–60.5)50.9 (47.3–54.6)
 Actual ever smokere70.3 (68.0–72.6)70.0 (67.8–72.1)68.6 (66.5–70.6)69.9 (67.8–72.0)
Current smokerf
 Noncurrent smoker/noncurrent userg5.5 (4.9–6.2)4.9 (4.4–5.5)5.9 (5.2–6.7)1.8 (1.5–2.2)
 Actual current e-cigarette–only userh19.6 (4.0–58.5)11.0 (5.4–21.1)23.1 (14.7–34.4)15.4 (13.5–17.5)
Actual current smokeri76.5 (73.2–79.5)76.9 (74.7–79.0)75.1 (71.9–78.1)76.7 (72.5–80.5)
  • Data are presented as percentages (95% CIs). All analyses adjusted for NYTS-provided weights and stratification variables.

  • a Estimated likelihood of smoking cigarettes based on a psychosocial model of smoking created by using 2004–2009 NYTS data on sex, race/ethnicity, age, willingness to wear clothing that bears a tobacco logo, living with a smoker, intention to smoke cigarettes in the next year, likelihood of smoking a cigarette offered by a friend, other tobacco product use (besides cigarettes and e-cigarettes), and time (centered on 2009).

  • b Model-estimated likelihood of ever taking a puff of a cigarette.

  • c Reported never taking a puff of a cigarette or e-cigarette.

  • d Endorsed having ever taken ≥1 puff of an e-cigarette but not smoking ≥1 puff of a cigarette.

  • e Reported taking ≥1 puff of a cigarette in lifetime, including dual users of cigarettes and e-cigarettes.

  • f Model-estimated likelihood of having smoked cigarettes in the past 30 days.

  • g Did not report smoking cigarettes or using an e-cigarette in the past 30 days.

  • h Reported using an e-cigarette in the past 30 days but not smoking cigarettes in the past 30 days.

  • i Reported smoking cigarettes in the past 30 days.