TABLE 4

Piecewise Exponential Survival Model Results for CPS Investigation and Substantiation, Consolidated Model

TimingInvestigationSubstantiation
Without Propensity Score WeightsWith Propensity Score WeightsWithout Propensity Score WeightsWith Propensity Score Weights
Foreclosure filing 3–4 quarters after1.804 (0.089)a1.950 (0.112)a1.832 (0.235)a1.985 (0.274)a
Foreclosure filing 2 quarters after1.653 (0.107)a1.693 (0.119)a1.922 (0.307)a2.202 (0.387)a
Foreclosure filing in next quarter1.619 (0.101)a1.671 (0.116)a1.894 (0.293)a1.863 (0.300)a
Foreclosure filing in current quarter1.468 (0.093)a,b1.549 (0.111)a,b0.812 (0.178)b,c,d0.957 (0.227)b,c,d
Foreclosure filing in prior quarter1.682 (0.103)a1.696 (0.114)a1.857 (0.290)a,e1.775 (0.291)a,e
Foreclosure filing 2 quarters before1.607 (0.103)a1.667 (0.120)a1.705 (0.288)e,f1.760 (0.321)e,f
Foreclosure filing 3–4 quarters before1.459 (0.078)a,b1.497 (0.094)a,b1.403 (0.208)e,g1.473 (0.231)g
Foreclosure filing ≥5 quarters before1.281 (0.058)a,b,c,d,h,i,j1.338 (0.076)a,b,c,d,h,i1.148 (0.148)b,c,d,h,i1.281 (0.185)b,c
  • Values are expressed as hazard ratios (SEs). Table includes 967 376 household-quarter observations of 60 461 households observed from Quarter 1, 2008, through Quarter 4, 2011 (analyses are based on 1 observation of each household in each of these quarters, for a total of 16 observations per household). Observations are not censored after the first failure; that is, these models allow for multiple failures. All models control for the covariates shown in the lower panel of Table 1 as well as a fixed effect for year of observation.

  • a P < .001.

  • b P < .05 versus “Foreclosure 3–4 quarters after.”

  • c P < .05 versus “Foreclosure 2 quarters after.”

  • d P < .05 versus “Foreclosure in next quarter.”

  • e P < .05 versus “Foreclosure in current quarter.”

  • f P < .01.

  • g P < .05.

  • h P < .05 versus “Foreclosure in prior quarter.”

  • i P < .05 versus “Foreclosure 2 quarters before.”

  • j P < .05 versus “Foreclosure 3–4 quarters before.”