Predictive Value of Abnormal Physical Examination Findings in Ill-Appearing and Well-Appearing Febrile Children

Abstract

In order to study the occurrence and positive predictive value of history and physical examination findings suggestive of serious illness in ill-appearing and well-appearing febrile children, 103 consecutive children aged ≤24 months with fever ≥38.3°C were evaluated from July 1, 1982 to Nov 24, 1982. Patients were initially classified by an attending physician (A) as to whether they appeared ill (Yale Observation Scale score >10) or well (scale score ≤10). The history was then taken by two attending physicians (A and B) and a resident; the physical examination was performed by attending physician B and the same resident. As history and physical examination findings were elicited, they were scored as to whether they did or did not suggest a serious illness. Serious illness was defined as the presence of a positive laboratory test. Ill-appearing patients had a significantly greater (P < .001, Fisher's exact test) occurrence of physical examination findings suggesting serious illness (14 of 22, 64%) than well-appearing children (12 of 81, 15%). The positive predictive values of abnormal physical examination findings for serious illness in ill-appearing (11 of 14, 79%) and well-appearing children (3 of 12, 25%) were significantly different (P = .02 by Fisher's exact test). The trends for abnormal history findings in ill-appearing and well-appearing children were similar to those for abnormal physical examination findings but did not achieve statistical significance. The results, indicating an important interaction between a febrile child's appearance and physical examination findings, are discussed in terms of probability reasoning in clinical decision making.