Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Payers are implementing alternative payment models that attempt to align payment with high-value care. This study calculates the breakeven capitated payment rate for a midsize pediatric practice and explores how several different staffing scenarios affect the rate.
METHODS: We supplemented a literature review and data from >200 practices with interviews of practice administrators, physicians, and payers to construct an income statement for a hypothetical, independent, midsize pediatric practice in fee-for-service. The practice was transitioned to full capitation to calculate the breakeven capitated rate, holding all practice parameters constant. Panel size, overhead, physician salary, and staffing ratios were varied to assess their impact on the breakeven per-member per-month (PMPM) rate. Finally, payment rates from an existing health plan were applied to the practice.
RESULTS: The calculated breakeven PMPM was $24.10. When an economic simulation allowed core practice parameters to vary across a broad range, 80% of practices broke even with a PMPM of $35.00. The breakeven PMPM increased by 12% ($3.00) when the staffing ratio increased by 25% and increased by 23% ($5.50) when the staffing ratio increased by 38%. The practice was viable, even with primary care medical home staffing ratios, when rates from a real-world payer were applied.
CONCLUSIONS: Practices are more likely to succeed in capitated models if pediatricians understand how these models alter practice finances. Staffing changes that are common in patient-centered medical home models increased the breakeven capitated rate. The degree to which team-based care will increase panel size and offset increased cost is unknown.
- APM —
- alternative payment model
- APP —
- advanced practice provider
- CDPHP —
- Capital District Physicians Health Plan
- EPCI —
- Enhanced Primary Care Initiative
- FFS —
- fee-for-service
- FTE —
- full-time equivalent
- PCMH —
- primary care medical home
- PMPM —
- per-member per-month
What’s Known on This Subject:
Payers are introducing alternative payment models nationwide in the hopes of improving quality and reducing costs. Although previous studies have evaluated their effects on spending and outcomes, few have explored how they affect practice finances.
What This Study Adds:
This study calculates the breakeven capitated payment rate for a midsize pediatric practice, provides a tool for practices to estimate their own breakeven rates, and models the relationship between attributed patient volume and payment rates under several practice scenarios.
Health care spending continues to grow at an unsustainable rate and is increasingly unaffordable for many Americans.1,2 The fee-for-service (FFS) payment method that dominates health care payments contributes to inefficiency by rewarding volume and ignoring quality.3⇓⇓⇓–7 To address these deficiencies, public and private payers are experimenting with alternative payment models (APMs) that attempt to align payments with improved value. More than 21 million lives are covered through primary care medical homes (PCMHs), where FFS payments are increasingly augmented with partially capitated per-member per-month (PMPM) payments.8 As of 2014, >40% of all commercial in-network payments are value based.9
Pediatricians must understand APMs and their implications for practice financials. These payment models can be confusing, they often lack transparency, and there is limited evidence to guide providers in understanding them.10 To address this knowledge gap, we present a simplified financial model, which converts a hypothetical, independent, midsize, general pediatric practice from FFS to full capitation. The analysis calculates the aggregated capitated rate necessary for the practice to break even compared with FFS, provides a financial analysis tool for practices, and investigates the relationship between the breakeven capitated rate and variations in practice parameters including panel size, overhead, physician salary, and staffing ratio. Finally, mean payment rates from a real-world payer are applied to assess practice viability.
Methods
Model and Data Sources
This analysis constructs income statements for a practice with 6 clinicians, including 5 full-time equivalent (FTE) physicians and 1 FTE advanced practice provider (APP); FTEs may be allocated between multiple part-time providers. The outcome variable of interest is the breakeven comprehensive capitated rate inclusive of shared savings and quality incentive payments.
The income statement was developed after interviews with 3 public and private payers and 2 practice administrators from midsize practices. Multiple data sources were used to establish model assumptions, including published medical literature, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Medical Group Management Association, surveys from the American Academy of Pediatrics and American Academy of Family Physicians, and proprietary data from 200 independent pediatrics practices across 40 states. As a robustness check, the final model was reviewed by 2 additional practice administrators, 1 commercial payer, and a pediatric practice consultant.
For simplicity, the model imposes a number of constraints. First, it makes a direct conversion from FFS to full capitation, inclusive of quality and cost incentive payments. Second, it shifts all patients in the practice to capitated payments simultaneously. Third, the capitated rate holds the panel size constant throughout the year and includes only responsibility for basic point-of-care testing, such as rapid strep, hemoglobin, and urinalysis. Fourth, any revenues from hospital consultations or circumcisions are excluded. Finally, the model simulates a 50/50 payer mix between Medicaid and commercial payers.11,12
Expense and Revenues Under FFS and Capitation
Published panel sizes vary widely, depending on practice style and the age distribution of the panel.13⇓⇓⇓⇓–18 The model assumes a panel size of 1700 and an average of 3.24 visits per patient per year.15,19,20 Table 1 summarizes the core model assumptions, along with the range for each variable identified from multiple sources.
List of Core Model Assumptions and Practice Parameters
Total expenses are often reported as 60% of actual revenue in pediatrics and family medicine.14,21⇓⇓–24 To increase transparency and generalizability, the model separates staff salary and fringe benefit expenses from other overhead. Pediatricians’ salaries vary with differences in practice ownership, payer mix, productivity, and geographic location.14,25,26 The model uses the Bureau of Labor Statistics national median salary of $180 000.25 Practice administrator salaries varied for similar reasons, and the model uses a salary of $92 000.27,28 The median salaries for APPs and registered nurses are consistently reported at $95 000 and $65 000, respectively.29⇓–31 Median salaries for administrative and clinical support staff vary based on duties but converge ∼$34 000.32⇓⇓–35 Fringe costs as a percentage of staff salary are 15% for clinicians and the practice administrator and 30% for support staff.14,36 The model assumes a support staff to physician ratio of 3.2.14,20,37 Overhead excluding staff expenses was set at 30% of revenue, resulting in total overhead of 62% of revenue.
Overhead costs excluding staff expenses are calculated as a percentage of total revenue in the capitated model. The model increases nonstaff overhead costs from 30% to 35% to allow for additional expenses such as electronic health record upgrades and reinsurance.38⇓–40 Fewer resources may be needed for billing-related administrative functions in capitated environments, but staff must still confirm valid insurance coverage, and detailed quality reporting is required. Because total expenses are calculated as a percentage of payments collected (not receivable) in the FFS model, the total expenses account for a similar proportion of revenues in the capitated model (63%).
Vaccines are a large expense for practices. Given the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention vaccine schedule for children 0 to 18 years of age and current vaccine prices, average vaccination cost is ∼$135 per patient per year.41,42 Practices typically break even or gain small profits from vaccinations billed to commercial payers, whereas the opposite is true for those billed to Medicaid.43 Because the modeled practice is a 50/50 payer mix, vaccines are excluded from both the FFS and capitation models.
Copayments may contribute meaningfully to practice revenues in both FFS and capitation. The model incorporates an average patient copayment of $8. This amount is calculated by multiplying the average commercial copays ($23) by the proportion of commercial patients (50%) and the likelihood that commercial plan requires copayments (66%).44 Many states allow (or will soon allow) nominal copayments for Medicaid beneficiaries, but these have been excluded from the model.45,46
In the FFS model, practice revenues are tied to physician and APP encounters. Practice revenues are calculated by multiplying the average number of visits per day, the number of providers, the number of clinical days per year, and the average payment per encounter.47 The hypothetical practice assumes 25 patients per day per provider, 220 clinical days annually, and $100.00 average payment per visit.14,48⇓–50 APPs may independently bill at 85% of physician fees, although APP roles may vary by practice.51 The FFS model accounts for rejected claims, no-shows, and uncompensated visits by writing off 10% of expected revenue. The model includes a 5% practice margin in both the FFS and capitated scenarios so that the practice is able to build and maintain financial reserves for upgrades or unexpected expenses.
In the capitated model, practice revenue is driven by attributed panel size and the average capitated payment. Instead of billing payers for individual patient encounters, capitated practices receive a risk adjusted base PMPM payment for each attributed patient. Particularly in pediatrics, the capitated rate should account for the age of covered patients.52 The model excludes vaccination, but if included in capitated payments, rates must be substantially higher and must allow for vaccine price increases, which occur annually if not more frequently.
Providers typically receive incentives for performance relative to quality and cost benchmarks. Quality and cost bonuses are paid when practices reach predetermined performance thresholds and as a percentage of spending compared with targets, respectively. For transparency, our model converts quality and shared savings payments into PMPMs. Incentive payments and copayments are added to the base PMPM to calculate total revenue.
In capitation: Net Income = Patient Co-payments + Capitation Base Rate + Utilization Incentives + Quality − Operating Expenses.
Sensitivity Analysis
Practices vary widely in organization and style. Our model presents an “average” practice, but several core assumptions may vary significantly between practices, including physician salary, panel size, and overhead. As a robustness check, an economic simulation was constructed where physician salary, panel size, and overhead less staff expenses were allowed to vary across the range of values in Table 1. Each simulation generated 500 different practices. The model was iterated 50 times to generate a total of 25 000 practices.
Practice Transformation
Because revenues are not tied to face-to-face physician or APP encounters, capitation models allow providers greater clinical autonomy than FFS, and all practice staff may contribute to patient care at the level to which they are legally entitled.13,37,53⇓⇓–56 We modified the practice’s staffing ratios to reflect 2 published PCMH transformations to assess its effect on the PMPM.37,54 In 1 example, an additional APP mental health provider, 2.5 nurses, 1.5 clinical support staff, 0.5 administrative support staff, and 0.5 of a practice administrator were added. These additions increased the staffing ratio by 37% (3.2 to 4.4). In a second example, 2 nurses and 2 clinical support staff were added. These additions increase the staffing ratio by 25% (3.2 to 4.0).
Capitated Rates for a Real-World Payer
For illustrative purposes, we obtained capitated rates and program information for Capital District Physicians Health Plan (CDPHP), a health plan in upstate New York that serves nearly a half million commercial and Medicaid members.57 CDPHP provided data from 2013, including the base capitated rate, quality incentives, and shared savings incentives payments. We applied Medicaid, commercial, and 50:50 blended rates to our model with and without staffing changes, to assess the financial impact on our hypothetical practice.
Results
In Fig 1, the left-side income statement is FFS, and the right side is capitation. With attributed patients, staffing, and salaries held constant, the minimum breakeven aggregated capitated rate for the hypothetical, independent, midsize practice was $24.10. This number may be reached in several ways. For example, a base PMPM rate of $20.60 could be supplemented with $1.50 PMPM quality incentive and a $2.00 PMPM cost incentive. Figure 2 illustrates the relationship between the panel size and the breakeven aggregated capitated payment rate. Practices that receive a PMPM above the line (in the green) generate higher revenues than the FFS scenario, whereas practices that receive a PMPM below the line (in the red) generate lower revenues than the FFS scenario.
Simplified financial model.
Relationship between PMPM rates, attributed patient population, and profitability. Breakeven is defined as the rate at which the practice is as profitable as it was under FFS. Without staffing or other operational changes, the model predicts a $24.10 PMPM; a lower PMPM would result in operational losses, and a higher PMPM would lead to increased revenues.
Figure 3 illustrates the findings of the sensitivity analysis for 500 practices. The figure shows the impact of random combinations of model inputs across the range of assumptions drawn from Table 1 on the breakeven aggregated capitated rate. In the simulation, 80% of practices would break even at an aggregated capitated rate between $16.12 and $35.00.
Sensitivity analysis of breakeven aggregated capitation rates with varied practice assumptions. An economic simulation allowed model assumptions to vary across the range of values shown in Table 1. These values were drawn from multiple sources.
With physician and staff salaries again held constant, Fig 4 illustrates the relationship between breakeven aggregated capitated rates and the 2 PCMH staffing transformations described above. The blue line represents the breakeven aggregated PMPM with no staffing adjustments. The red line reflects the first staffing transformation (38% staffing increase), and the green line reflects the second practice transformation (25% staffing increase).
Relationship between the breakeven aggregated capitated rate, panel size, and PCMH staffing variations. As staffing ratios change, the breakeven PMPM rate will also vary. This figure shows the impact of 2 staffing changes on the breakeven PMPM. The first (red) adds an APP mental health provider, 2.5 nurses, 1.5 clinical support staff, .5 administrative support staff, and .5 of a practice administrator were added. The second (green) adds 2 nurses and 2 clinical support staff. To the extent that staffing changes increase efficiency, the cost of additional staff may be offset by increased panel size.
Table 2 presents CDPHP’s mean capitated rates for both its Medicaid and commercial populations, and program details including performance metrics and covered services. CDPHP began transitioning practices to full capitation in 2008 as part of its Enhanced Primary Care Initiative (EPCI).57 Many of CDPHP’s EPCI participating practices are also certified PCMHs. As in our model, vaccines are paid separately on an FFS basis in the CDPHP model. Age-, sex-, and risk-adjusted capitated rates range from $13 to $65 and depend in part on whether the patient is in a commercial or Medicaid plan. The maximum incentive payment available is $5.32, but on average, practices earn 33% ($1.77) of the potential maximum.
CDPHP Enhanced Primary Care Capitated Payment Rates for Pediatric Patients
Holding all assumptions constant in the FFS and capitation financial statements, the model applies the mean capitated payments of $22 (base Medicaid PMPM rate) and $36 (base commercial PMPM rate) plus $1.77 PMPM incentive payments (all patients). Our model resulted in a 4% and 25% margin in the Medicaid and commercial plans, respectively. A practice that blended 50% Medicaid and 50% commercial patients resulted in a base capitation rate of ∼$29. After the $1.77 incentive payment, the blended practice earned a 17% margin; this rate was sufficient to support either of the 2 PCMH staffing transformations.
Discussion
Given unsustainable growth in US health spending, public and commercial payers are transitioning to APMs that are intended to better align payment with value. Although many physicians have hesitated to participate in APMs, future participation in new payment models will probably be unavoidable. Thirty percent of Medicare payments are already tied to APMs.58 Pediatricians need to understand the implications of emerging payment models for practice organization and finances. Our model calculates the aggregated capitated rate where a pediatric practice would break even relative to FFS across a range of panel sizes, describes how that point would differ between practices, and illustrates the impact of staffing changes. Mean payment rates from a real-world capitated payment model, CDPHP, are applied as an illustration.
To our knowledge, no study has examined the practice financials of a transition from FFS to capitation in pediatrics. Kuo et al59 recently estimated primary care expenditures by Medicaid patients at $19 PMPM, 25% below our breakeven capitated rate. However, most commercial plans reimburse at higher rates than Medicaid plans, and our breakeven rate reflects the average of all patients in the practice.60
Practice style and organization vary in important ways. The sensitivity analysis presented in Fig 3 demonstrates a wide variation in breakeven rates based on these differences. The income statement shown in Fig 1 may be adapted to calculate the breakeven capitated rate for specific practice circumstances. Even so, most practices will need technical assistance from payers to identify the number of attributed patients (panel size), assess performance on utilization and quality metrics, and project revenues.61 Capitation model designs also differ, as do eligibility and participation requirements; practices should pay careful attention to program terms when assessing the financial impact of participation. If vaccinations are included in the capitated payments, a new calculation is needed.
PCMH models are often paid through capitation at rates intended to support a team-based care approach that may lower costs and improve outcomes.8,62,63 In these models, physicians may elect to spend more time with the most complex patients while delegating simple visits to a broader team. For example, in the case of a pediatric patient with asthma, simple but important tasks such as teaching nebulizer technique and reviewing asthma action plans may be performed by nurses or medical assistants.64,65 Some clinicians may work with patients by phone, e-mail, Web chat, or even video call, potentially improving efficiency, access, and patient satisfaction.49,66 However, not all PCMH models perform better than traditional primary care models. Studies of the effects of APMs and APM-supported delivery reforms on health care expenditures and patient outcomes find mixed effects.67⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓–73
PCMH practices often change staffing ratios to optimize the care team and extend services. The optimal staffing mix should be driven by practice and community needs.13,74⇓–76 Many of these staffing changes will increase the breakeven capitated rate. Our findings are consistent with a recent review that found that PCMH staffing changes increase the breakeven capitated rate by ∼$5.00 PMPM.54 Our first staffing model resulted in an increase of $5.50 (23%), and our second staffing model resulted in an increase of $3.00 (12%). Under capitation, practices may increase revenue by increasing panel size, increasing quality incentives, or increasing utilization incentives. There is therefore a dynamic relationship between staffing choices, practice efficiency, and the breakeven capitation rate. The mix of providers and services that optimizes efficiency and performance remains undefined.77
This study has several limitations. We modeled a midsize, independent, general pediatric practice, but many other practice configurations are possible. Practices differ in the number and type of providers, support staff ratios, overhead costs, and panel sizes. The model does not account for varying ratios of new to established patient visits or the time and payment differences between well and sick visits.
We based our practice on average data drawn from >200 pediatric practices distributed across a broad geographic area, the medical literature, and published surveys. Although our model illustrates important considerations in transitioning to capitation, our sensitivity analysis demonstrates wide variation in the breakeven capitation rate when assumptions are varied. Individual practices should use the income statement as a guide to calculate the breakeven capitated rate for their specific circumstances. Lastly, the assumption that all patients simultaneously transition from FFS to capitation is not typical, and most practices will participate in several payment models simultaneously.
Conclusions
Practices are more likely to succeed financially in APMs, such as capitation, if they understand how these models alter practice finances and how to calculate the breakeven rate and if they take advantage of the added flexibility to improve efficiency and value. Additional work should focus on analyzing practices in blended payment models and the relationship between differing staffing ratios, patient panel size, and patient outcomes.
Acknowledgments
The authors thank CDPHP’s Bruce Nash, Eileen Wood, and Ali Skinner for providing us with data, model support, and invaluable editorial comments. We also thank Cheryl Arnold, Theresa Cleveland, Sunnah Kim, and Chip Hart for their helpful comments on this manuscript.
Footnotes
- Accepted May 18, 2016.
- Address correspondence to Steven A. Farmer, MD, PhD, Center for Healthcare Innovation and Policy Research, George Washington University, 2100 Pennsylvania Ave, Office 316, Washington, DC 20037. E-mail: safarmer{at}email.gwu.edu
FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE: The authors have indicated they have no financial relationships relevant to this article to disclose.
FUNDING: Supported by the Merkin Family Foundation.
POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST: The authors have indicated they have no potential conflicts of interest to disclose.
References
- Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics