ARTICLE |
a Center for Health Policy/Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research
b Health Research and Policy
c Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
d Health Economics Resource Center, Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, Palo Alto, California
e National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts
| ABSTRACT |
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DESIGN. We used birth certificate, death certificate, and hospital discharge data for essentially all low birth weight, singleton California newborns born between 1993 and 2000. We identified areas likely to have been affected by the opening of a new nearby midlevel unit, analyzed changes over time in the share of births that took place in midlevel NICU hospitals, and compared patterns in areas that were and were not likely affected by the opening of a new midlevel unit. We also tracked the corresponding changes in the share of births in high-level hospitals and in those without NICU facilities (low-level).
RESULTS. The probability of a 500- to 1499-g infant being born in a midlevel unit increased by 17 percentage points after the opening of a new nearby unit. More than three quarters of this increase was accounted for by reductions in the probability of birth in a hospital with a high-level unit (15 points), and the other portion was resulting from reductions in the share of newborns delivered in hospitals with low-level centers (2 points). Similar patterns were observed in 1500- to 2499-g newborns.
CONCLUSIONS. The introduction of new midlevel units was associated with significant shifts of births from both high-level and low-level hospitals to midlevel hospitals. In areas in which new midlevel units opened, the majority of the increase in midlevel deliveries was attributable to shifts from high-level unit births. Continued proliferation of midlevel units should be carefully assessed.
Key Words: health services research low birth weight NICU neonatal care premature infants
Abbreviations: LBWlow birth weight HMOhealth maintenance organization VLBWvery low birth weight
Evidence suggests that high-risk newborns born in hospitals with subspecialty NICUs have better outcomes than those born in hospitals with no NICU or only midlevel (specialty) facilities,113 and current recommendations call for delivery of high-risk (<1500 g or <32 weeks gestation) newborns in subspecialty facilities.1416 Implementation of regionalized systems during the 1970s and early 1980s seemed to have some success in increasing the share of high-risk births taking place in hospitals with appropriate NICU facilities.1720 However, these trends slowed, or even reversed, during the 1990s.1012,21,22 This shift has raised concerns about the potential for worse newborn health outcomes1012,23 and questions about the causes of deregionalization and potential policy options.
One potential cause is the proliferation of midlevel NICUs. In particular, the number of small, community NICUs increased significantly during the 1990s. In California, the location of our study, there were 48 new midlevel units established or upgraded between 1990 and 2001. This occurred primarily in urban and suburban areas that were already being served by tertiary centers.12,24,25 Although a range of factors such as insurance status, maternal education, and obstetric risk factors can influence the choice of hospital for birth, increased availability of, and easier access to, midlevel units in some areas may have led to increased use.2631
The literature on the effects of NICU availability on use of different levels of care is sparse. Although recent studies have shown that more low birth weight (LBW) infants are being born and cared for at midlevel unit hospitals, none have specifically addressed how the entrance of a new midlevel NICU into an area affects where LBW infants are born in that area. One previous study of the impacts of managed care on newborn care showed some evidence suggesting that the existence of midlevel units could move newborns away from subspecialty centers.32 Given the evidence for potentially worse outcomes among high-risk newborns born in midlevel facilities, the opening of new midlevel units could, therefore, have a significant impact on these infants.
We investigated how the locations of births were affected by the addition of new midlevel NICUs. We studied patterns of hospital use for deliveries in areas likely to have been affected by the opening of a midlevel unit over the period 19932001 and compared them with patterns in areas less likely to have been affected by new units. If the introduction of a new unit was important in determining patterns of hospital use for mothers of high-risk newborns, we expected to see patterns of births change more in areas affected by the opening of a new midlevel unit than in other areas.
| DATA AND METHODS |
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For analysis, we extracted singleton births with birth weights between 500 and 2499 g that took place in California between 1993 and 2000. Because the determinants of hospital choices can vary between rural and urban areas, we used the zip code of mothers residence to select births from zip codes that (1) have their center within 1 of the 25 most populous counties in California (these areas contain
90% of the state population), and (2) had at least 1 LBW birth in each of the years 19932000. We excluded infants with a diagnosis of trisomy 13, trisomy 18, or anencephaly. We included data on 177277 births.
NICU Levels
The previous literature on California NICUs commonly groups hospitals into 4 categories12,32,35,36: level I (cared only for healthy neonates and those with minor medical problems), level II (cared for moderately sick infants but did not provide assisted ventilation for >4 hours), level II+ (community NICU, an expanded level II unit that provided long-term ventilatory support, and some, but not all, of the other services normally provided by level III units), and level III (provided a full range of specialized neonatal intensive care, including pediatric subspecialty consultants and surgery). Previous studies have also identified volume as an important factor in NICU outcomes.11,12
We present results based on a simplified grouping that collapsed these categories to place hospitals into 1 of 3 categories for analysis: "low-level" facilities are those with level I facilities, "midlevel" facilities are all level II units and level II+ units with average daily censuses under 15, and "high-level" facilities are level II+ facilities with average daily census of 15 or more and level III facilities. This grouping eases the presentation of results while capturing important patterns in the data. We placed the smaller level II+ units in the midlevel group and the larger level II+ units in the high-level group based on previous studies reporting that high-volume level II+ NICUs had LBW outcomes similar to level III units.11 The actual number of level II+ units assigned to the high-level group is small. In the year 2000, there were a total of 82 level II+ units in California: 7 of those were placed in the high-level NICU category, and 75 were placed in the midlevel category. Often, these high-level level II+ facilities function as tertiary facilities, except that they do not perform surgeries on site. Some of these units are closely affiliated with nearby childrens hospitals and patients requiring surgery are transferred to those facilities as needed. We verified that our results are robust to assigning all the level II+ units to the midlevel group.
For each birth, we coded the category of NICU care available in the hospital of birth on the basis of these groupings.
Identifying New NICU Areas
We categorized each analysis zip code on the basis of whether or not it was likely to have been influenced by the opening of a new midlevel NICU between 1993 and 2000. To do this, we computed the distance from the center of each zip code to the address of the nearest midlevel unit in each year and examined patterns in the observed distances for each zip code over time. Those zip codes that had a decrease in the distance to the nearest midlevel unit at some point between 1993 and 2000 were identified as areas in which the choices available to mothers giving birth were likely to have been affected by the opening of a new midlevel unit. We termed these areas "new-NICU areas."
In zip codes that continued with the same distance to the nearest midlevel unit throughout, we expected that choices available to mothers were less likely to have been affected by the opening of a new NICU. We termed these areas "nonew-NICU areas." Note, however, that it is possible that new midlevel NICUs opened near enough to these zip codes to affect choices to at least some extent, although not near enough to result in classification of the area as a new-NICU area. Thus, it remains possible that some births in even these areas were affected by new midlevel unit openings, although presumably to a lesser degree than births in the new-NICU areas. Our analysis approach requires only that births to mothers residing in the new-NICU areas were more likely to have been affected than births in these other areas. Based on these measures, we coded each birth according to whether or not the mothers residence was in a new-NICU area. Births to mothers who live in new-NICU areas are termed "new-NICU area births."
Thirteen zip codes had increases in the distance to the nearest midlevel unit during the study period because of hospital closures or hospitals upgrading a midlevel unit to a high-level unit. The results presented below exclude 1444 births in these zip codes, but our results are robust to including them.
Analysis of NICU Use Patterns
To investigate the effects of opening new midlevel NICUs, we examined changes in the distribution of births across hospitals with different NICU capabilities over time in new-NICU areas compared with changes over time in other areas. If the introduction of a new unit is an important driver of changes in patterns of hospital use for high-risk newborns, we expected to see patterns of births change more in the new-NICU areas where the distance to the nearest midlevel unit declined than in other areas where it did not.
We began by plotting the share of births in low-level, midlevel, and high-level facilities by year, comparing patterns in new-NICU areas and other areas. We then focused on just births in 1993 and 2000 to provide clear before and after comparisons. We tabulated shares of births at different level hospitals in each year and examined changes in the distribution over time.
To control for baseline characteristics of the new-NICU areas and other areas, as well as for variations in the characteristics of the populations across areas, we used multinomial logistic regression. The dependent variable is the level of NICU facilities available in the birth hospital (3 categories: low-level, midlevel, and high-level). The independent variables include a dummy for births in 2000 to control for time trends common to both types of areas and a dummy for new-NICU areas to control for baseline characteristics of new-NICU areas as opposed to other areas. The key independent variable is an interaction term between these 2 measures, capturing the change over time in locations of birth in new-NICU areas, relative to the change in other areas. We controlled for birth weight (500749, 750999, 10001249, 12501499, 15001749, 17501999, and 20002499 g), the presence of anomalies previously identified as being associated with a higher risk of mortality12 (2 categories: any anomalies or no anomalies), maternal age (3 categories:
19, 2029, and
30 years), maternal education (3 categories: <12, 12, and >12 years), maternal race (5 categories: white, Hispanic, black, Asian, other), and mothers expected source of payment for the delivery hospitalization (5 categories: health maintenance organization [HMO], non-HMO private coverage, Medicaid, self-pay, or other). We used results from these models to compute predicted probabilities of being born in low-level, midlevel, and high-level centers before and after the adoption of the relevant midlevel unit, holding all control variables fixed at their sample means.
We used
2 tests to examine the statistical significance of the changes in distributions and the statistical significance of coefficients in the multinomial logistic regressions.
We performed these analyses for all births in the sample and then separately for newborns 500 to 1499 g and 1500 to 2499 g.
| RESULTS |
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Of the 175833 LBW births we examine, 19058 were associated with new-NICU zip codes.
Table 1 summarizes information about the characteristics of births in the sample. Mothers who lived in new-NICU areas were slightly younger, less educated, and less likely to be black than those who lived in other areas. There were no statistically significant differences in insurance status, birth weight, or the presence of anomalies.
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Among births associated with areas that did not have a new unit open, the differences between the distributions in 1993 and 2000, although still statistically significant, were much smaller. There was a small increase in the share of births taking place at midlevel facilities and corresponding small declines in the share of births in low-level centers and high-level centers, which may be attributable to the fact that even areas that did not meet our definition for having a nearby new midlevel unit open may have been affected to some extent by the opening of some new units, perhaps a bit farther away.
To ensure that our results are not because of differences in the baseline characteristics of different areas or their populations, we estimated multinomial logistic regression analyses that controlled for underlying characteristics of areas and populations. Results for key variables are shown in Table 3 (see Appendix 4 for full results). For VLBW births, the regression coefficient capturing the 19932000 change in the likelihood of being born in a low-level hospital relative to a midlevel hospital in new-NICU areas is 0.653 (P < .05). The corresponding regression coefficient capturing the change in the likelihood of being born in a high-level hospital relative to a midlevel hospital in new-NICU areas is 0.695 (P < .01). The fact that both of these coefficients are negative suggests that the share of VLBW births in midlevel units increased in new-NICU areas relative to rates of births in both low- and high-level hospitals.
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| DISCUSSION |
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Specifically, when we examined VLBW and LBW births to mothers who resided in areas where a new midlevel NICU opened between 1993 and 2000, we found significant increases in the share of births taking place at midlevel units after the new unit opened. We found that most of the increase in the share of VLBW and LBW newborns taking place in midlevel hospitals was accounted for by a decrease in the share of these newborns who were delivered in hospitals with high-level NICU facilities.
By contrast, there were much smaller changes in the locations of VLBW and LBW births to mothers who resided in areas that were not close to newly opened midlevel NICUs. It is interesting to note that there was some deregionalization evident even in births to mothers who lived outside of the new-NICU areas. This may reflect generalized trends toward deregionalization driven by a range of forces. It may also reflect the diluted but still potentially nonnegligible effects of opening new midlevel units. It may be, for example, that new units opened near enough to some areas to have a small effect on hospital choice for mothers in those areas, but not near enough to trigger our mechanism for defining new-NICU areas.
One valuable way to interpret the results is to take the trends for the nonew-NICU areas as an indication of a baseline trend toward deregionalization, and to interpret the difference between the changes seen in the new-NICU areas and those in the nonew-NICU areas as an indication of the portion of deregionalization driven by the introduction of new midlevel units. Because there is some chance that even the baseline trends observed in the nonew-NICU areas were caused by the opening of new midlevel units, looking at the difference might understate the true effects of midlevel unit openings, but the difference would still provide a conservative estimate of the size of the effect. In this light, the fact that the changes we observe in the locations of births to mothers in new-NICU areas are much larger than changes for births to mothers in other areas is consistent with the view that opening new midlevel NICUs was an important factor in deregionalization.
The size of the shift we observed is quite large. Opening a new midlevel unit is associated with an increase of 17 percentage points in the probability that a VLBW birth to a nearby mother will take place in a midlevel unit, coupled with a corresponding decline of
15 percentage points in the probability that the birth will take place in a high-level facility, and a 2-percentage-point decline in the probability the birth will take place in a low-level hospital. For LBW births, opening a new midlevel unit is associated with an increase of
21 percentage points in the probability that a birth to a nearby mother will take place in a midlevel unit, coupled with a corresponding decline of 14 percentage points in the probability that the birth will take place in a high-level facility and a 7-percentage-point decline in the probability the birth will take place in a low-level hospital.
Between 1993 and 2000, among all births <2500 g, there was a noticeable amount of deregionalization in California. Overall, the share of births in midlevel units increased by 3.8%, and the share in high-level facilities declined by 4%. For VLBW births, the share of births in midlevel units increased by 4.9%, and the share in high-level facilities declined by 7.2%. Our results suggest that nearly all of this shift can be traced back to the opening of new midlevel units. Simply stated, the majority of the VLBW births in these newly opened midlevel units seem to be births that would have occurred in the high-level units had the new midlevel unit not opened.
We believe a plausible interpretation of these results is that the opening of midlevel units played a causal role in deregionalization during the 1990s. However, as with most nonrandomized studies, we are unable to definitively rule out the possibility that other forces caused the results we observe. Our study design should minimize the possibility that other factors drove the changes in birth locations we saw in new-NICU areas. If there were other factors, they would have had to be present in just those areas that were most affected by new midlevel NICU openings during this time period. We are unaware of likely candidates, although it is possible that they exist.
One natural question is, are the shifts we saw caused by reductions in the capacity of high-level facilities? We believe this is unlikely. We are unaware of changes in high-level unit capacity that would have affected only our new-NICU areas during this time period. More generally, the number of LBW births in California actually declined between 1993 and 2000,37,38 and we are aware of no generalized reductions in the number of high-level NICU beds between 1993 and 2000.39
The role of patient or doctor preferences for deregionalization may warrant additional study. It is possible, for example, that patients in some areas had a strong preference for midlevel units. This preference would provide reason for nearby hospitals to add midlevel units, and then reason for people to use them once they were in place. We do not have the data that would be needed to provide empirical evidence about the role of preferences. However, although we cannot rule out variations in preferences as a potential factor driving our findings, we would not expect them to play a strong role. It is not clear that one would naturally expect there to be highly localized variations in patient preferences. It is also the case that many of the areas that received new midlevel NICUs did have access to midlevel units even in 1993, and we still saw changes associated with the opening of new units. This suggests to us that, whatever the underlying reasons for the opening of new midlevel units, their opening did play an important role in shifting the location of births.
It is possible, even likely, that other factors besides the opening of new midlevel units can contribute to deregionalization. Factors such as the location and amenities of other hospitals and the preferences of patients may play important roles. Our results should not be interpreted as suggesting that midlevel NICU diffusion is the only important factor in deregionalization but rather as providing support for the view that midlevel diffusion is an important factor.
That the opening new midlevel NICUs can change hospital use patterns is perhaps not that surprising, particularly in retrospect. Other studies have shown that travel time and convenience can be significant drivers of hospital-use patterns.26,27,29,30,40 However, significant shifts of VLBW and LBW births from high-level hospitals to midlevel hospitals are concerning. Current guidelines call for VLBW births and/or births of infants <32 weeks gestation to take place in high-level facilities.1416 In addition, evidence indicates that outcomes for newborns weighing <2000 g delivered in high-level centers are better, and these shifts may be associated with changes in mortality rates. Studies in the last 15 years have found that such infants in high-level units have much better outcomes than those born in midlevel and low-level units.7,10,11,41,42 For infants weighing 2000 to 2499 g the data are mixed. Powell et al10 found that outcomes for these larger LBW infants were better in nontertiary settings; however, they also found that higher risk deliveries of infants in this birth weight range were concentrated at tertiary hospitals. There is also evidence that for all infants born in hospitals with high-level NICUs, the outcomes are better.12 Thus, it is very likely that disproportionately moving LBW and VLBW births from high-level units into midlevel units would tend to raise mortality rates higher than they otherwise would have been.
In addition, as overall survival increases (mortality rates for VLBW infants in the United States have dropped [31.8% in 1990 to 24.7% in 2000]), complications like intraventricular hemorrhage become more of a concern in these patients. Synnes et al43 found rates of intraventricular hemorrhage to also be lower in bigger tertiary care centers. Thus, one can also infer that shifts in birth patterns resulting in proportionately less VLBW and LBW infants being born in high-level centers could raise complication rates higher than they might have been.
At the same time, a full evaluation of the impact of opening new midlevel units would have to include other factors besides morbidity and mortality of newborns. In some cases, it may be that new midlevel units increase convenience for families. We would expect that the most significant benefits of these types would be found in rural areas where new midlevel NICUs could greatly reduce travel time to a hospital with at least some NICU capabilities. Because our study only included newborns in nonrural areas, it seems likely that this would be unlikely to be a strong offsetting factor, but it may be important in some cases. More generally, the majority of the new midlevel units introduced in California were added in suburban or urban areas that were already serviced by high-level and other midlevel units.11,12,24,44
In some areas, better access to midlevel units may improve access for higher birth weight children who benefit from the more advanced services available in midlevel units but would otherwise not receive them. Although mortality rates for higher birth weight infants are quite low, other aspects of morbidity could be affected.
There may also be cost advantages if midlevel NICU stays are less expensive. Cost differences between midlevel units and high-level units remain unclear. Phibbs et al12 found no difference in the risk-adjusted costs in California, whereas Sanderson et al8 found no difference between the costs for infants weighing 500 to 1499 g in level II and level III units but found "enhanced level II" units to have significantly less costs (approximately $9000 in Medicaid reimbursements per admission) than level III units in South Carolina. Additional research will be needed to assess whether there are costs or cost savings involved in referring all high-risk infants to high-level units.
LBW neonates are a small segment of the overall population. In 2004, only 8.1% of newborns were LBW and 1.47% was VLBW. Thus, the affected proportion of the newborn population is relatively small.45 However, poor outcomes in this group are expensive,46 both during acute and long-term care and from both a societal and personal perspective. Much progress has been made over the last 4 decades to help improve the outcomes in these patients, but diffusion of these neonatal care technologies and knowledge has not been shown to improve infant outcomes and can worsen them as high-risk deliveries are drawn away from high-level units. Weighing the potential for higher mortality rates among VLBW and LBW newborns with the possibility of benefits like added convenience for parents, improved access for higher birth weight newborns, cost changes, is inherently subjective and is complicated by a lack of complete data. Nonetheless, we believe that these results suggest the importance of renewed scrutiny and discussion of efforts to further expand the supply of new midlevel NICUs.
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| ACKNOWLEDGMENTS |
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We thank Drs Pete Groeneveld and Susan Schmitt for help with SAS and Stata programming and Dr Paul Wise for insight and advice on the manuscript.
| FOOTNOTES |
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Address correspondence to Corinna A. Haberland, MD, MS, Stanford University, Center for Health Policy/Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, 117 Encina Commons, Stanford, CA 94305. E-mail: corinnah{at}stanford.edu
The authors have indicated they have no financial relationships relevant to this article to disclose.
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