Published online August 1, 2005
PEDIATRICS Vol. 116 No. 2 August 2005, pp. 491-492 (doi:10.1542/peds.2005-1061)
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COMMENTARY

The Conundrum of Prediction

Glen P. Aylward, PhD, ABPP

Division of Developmental and Behavioral Pediatrics
Southern Illinois University School of Medicine
Springfield, IL 62794-9658

Abbreviations: BSID, Bayley Scales of Infant Development • K-ABC, Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children • MDI, Mental Developmental Index • ELBW, extremely low birth weight

The first 20% of the full text of this article appears below.

The study by Hack et al1 in this issue of Pediatrics underscores the complexities inherent in prediction of developmental outcome. More specifically, in this study many children who scored >2 SDs below average on the Bayley Scales of Infant Development-II (BSID-II)2 at 20 months' corrected age subsequently did better on the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children (K-ABC)3 given at 8 years. Greater stability in scores was found in those children with Mental Developmental Index (MDI) scores of <70 and who also had neurosensory impairment, with continued problems noted at both measurement points. Conversely, the vast majority of children whose initial MDI score was >70 also did well on the later assessment. As a result, high negative predictive values, but low positive predictive values, were found.

There are numerous advantages to the study: large sample size, consideration of environmental and biomedical variables, long-term serial evaluation, analyses with and without . . . [Full Text of this Article]

Reprint requests to (G.P.A.) Division of Developmental and Behavioral Pediatrics, Southern Illinois University School of Medicine, PO Box 19658, Springfield, IL 62794-9658. E-mail: gaylward@siumed.edu




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