PEDIATRICS Vol. 94 No. 6 December 1994, pp. A36
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WHICH CAME FIRST, THE SHOT OR THE TARGET?

Formal statistical reasoning that can be applied to a-priori hypotheses is strictly invalid for exploratory analysis. Rothman quotes a vivid allegory of this false reasoning: the "Texas sharpshooter" fires a shot randomly into the side of a barn, then draws a target centered on the hole. Dredging data for "significant" p values fits targets to holes.