PEDIATRICS Vol. 82 No. 5 November 1988, pp. 707-712
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Persistence of Occurrence of Injury: Can Injuries of Preschool Children Predict Injuries of School-Aged Children?

Polly E. Bijur PhD1, Jean Golding PhD1, and Mary Haslum PhD1

1 From the Departments of Pediatrics, Epidemiology, and Social Medicine, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, New York, and the Department of Child Health, University of Bristol, Bristol, England

Data regarding 10,394 children from the 1970 British birth cohort were used to assess the consistency of injuries reported by parents as occurring between birth and 5 years of age and injuries reported between 5 and 10 years of age. Children with three or more separate injury events reported between birth and 5 years of age were 5.9 times more likely to have three or more injuries reported between 5 and 10 years of age than children without early injuries (95% confidence interval = 4.4 to 8.0). Children with one or more injuries resulting in hospitalization before 5 years of age were 2.5 times as likely to have one or more admissions to the hospital for injuries after 5 years of age than children with no early hospitalizations for injuries (95% confidence interval = 2.0 to 3.3). Stepwise regression was used to identify other predictors of injury. The number of injuries before 5 years of age were the best predictors of injuries reported between 5 and 10 years of age, followed by male sex, aggressive child behavior, young maternal age, many older, and few younger siblings. The findings of this study are consistent with two other large studies that relied on medical records rather than parental report and that focused on more severe injuries. Children with several of the identified risk factors can be predicted to have high rates of accidental injuries and may benefit from focused intervention.

Key Words: accident • aggression • preschool age • school age • injury

Submitted on December 31, 1987
Accepted on February 24, 1988




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