PEDIATRICS Vol. 77 No. 6 June 1986, pp. 862-869
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Value of Childhood Blood Pressure Measurements and Family History in Predicting Future Blood Pressure Status: Results From 8 Years of Follow-up in the Bogalusa Heart Study

Charles L. Shear DrPH1, Gregory L. Burke MD1, David S. Freedman PhD1, and Gerald S. Berenson MD1

1 From the Departments of Preventive Medicine and Public Health and Medicine, Louisiana State University Medical Center, New Orleans

The value of BP measurements and family history of cardiovascular disease in predicting future BP status was studied in 1,501 children, initially 2 to 14 years of age, who were examined four times during an 8-year period in the Bogalusa Heart Study. Correlation coefficients between year 1 and year 9 BPs were as follows for systolic and diastolic BPs, respectively: 0.41 and 0.35 (P < .0001). These correlations were significant in all age groups. For children in the upper quartile of BP at any one prior examination, the percentage remaining in the year 9 upper quartile ranged from 41% to 52% for systolic BP and 35% to 44% for diastolic BP. Three serial BP measurements in the upper quartile increased the percentages remaining in the upper quartile to 68% for systolic BP and 62% for diastolic BP. Conversely, of those children not in the upper quartile of systolic BP at year 9, 96.8% did not have all three prior measurements in the upper quartile. Family history of hypertension was shown to independently predict year 9 systolic BP status. These results confirm the importance of serial BP measurements and family history of hypertension for the practicing physician.

Key Words: blood pressure • cardiovascular disease • cardiovascular risk factor • hypertension

Submitted on June 27, 1985
Accepted on August 12, 1985




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