PEDIATRICS Vol. 76 No. 4 October 1985, pp. 551-556
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Clinical Predictors of Acute Bacterial Diarrhea in Young Children

Thomas G. DeWitt MD1, Kim F. Humphrey MPH1, and Paul McCarthy MD1

1 From the Departments of Pediatrics at the University of Massachusetts Medical Center, Worcester, and Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut

This prospective study assessed the value of presenting history, physical examination, and screening laboratory tests in predicting whether diarrhea in a young child is associated with a stool culture positive for a bacterial pathogen. Acutely ill children less than 4 years old were studied in a hospital outpatient setting. Two hundred patients were seen in a 9frac12-month period, which encompassed the seasons of summer, fall, and winter. One hundred ninety-five patients had cultures completed and twenty-nine (15%) had a bacterial pathogen isolated. The best predictive variable for a stool culture positive for a bacterial pathogen was the presence of polymorphonuclear cells in the stool, with a sensitivity of 85%, a specificity of 88%, and positive and negative predictive values of 59% and 97%, respectively. A cluster of three historical variables—abrupt onset of diarrhea, greater than four stools per day, and no vomiting before the onset of diarrhea—was identified that delineated a subpopulation of patients with an increased probability of having a stool culture positive for a bacterial pathogen (27% v 4% if any of the three variables was absent). It is suggested that these findings can be combined in a stepwise manner using the historical cluster as an initial screening, followed by examination for stool polymorphonuclear cells in the high probability subgroup, to identify those patients with a very high probability of having a bacterial pathogen isolated in their stool.

Key Words: bacterial diarrhea • stool cultures • decision analysis

Submitted on January 28, 1985
Accepted on March 7, 1985




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