HOW MUCH RESEARCH IS ENOUGH?
Medical researchers are spluttering outrage. Last year Congress approved 6,500 new grants for them. But the Office of Management and Budget has now directed that only 5,000 be awarded, as the Administration requested in the first place. The researchers say the promise of their field has never been higher and more research will hasten the conquest of disease. So how much research is enough?
A reasonable goal for basic research policy is to maximize the natural rate of discovery by leaving no promising avenue unfunded. But is there already too much money chasing too few good ideas? The quality-control mechanisms of academic science are so loose that they regularly fail to detect even outright fraud. The possibly doubtful quality of many research reports is evident from the rapidity with which most are forgotten. Only 36% of published scientific articles are cited two or more times in subsequent research reports. The rest—two-thirds of researchers' published output—may contribute only negligibly to the march of science.
