1 Visiting Professor of Pediatrics and Public Health, School of Medicine and Graduate, School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
There is little support from available data for the hypothesis that better pediatric care is keeping children out of hospitals. The available data suggest that the observed reduction in hospital utilization by children is largely the result of the changed age distribution of the child population of the United States. Slight reductions in age-specific utilization rates appear to be entirely the result of reduced average length of stay in the hospital following admission which were not offset by slightly increasing admission rates.
Those responsible for planning hospital facilities for children should not base predictions for future needs on the apparent trend to lower hospitalization rates for children. Unless further data establish that such trends are real, rather than a manifestation of changed demography, planners will be most prudent if they estimate future needs by applying current age-specific rates to future age-specific population projections.