Published online September 1, 2004
PEDIATRICS Vol. 114 No. 3 September 2004, pp. 714-719 (doi:10.1542/10.1542/peds.2003-0864-L)
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Continuity of Binge and Harmful Drinking From Late Adolescence to Early Adulthood

Carolyn A. McCarty, PhD*,{ddagger},§, Beth E. Ebel, MD, MPH*,{ddagger}, Michelle M. Garrison, MPH*,{ddagger}, David L. DiGiuseppe, MSc{ddagger}, Dimitri A. Christakis, MD, MPH*,{ddagger} and Frederick P. Rivara, MD, MPH*,{ddagger},||

* Departments of Pediatrics
§ Psychology
|| Epidemiology
{ddagger} Child Health Institute, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Objective. To test the hypothesis that late adolescent drinking behavior (ages 17–20) is associated with harmful and binge drinking in early adulthood (ages 30–31).

Methods. We used the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), a nationally representative longitudinal data set. We used harmful and binge drinking at ages 17 to 20 to predict harmful and binge drinking at ages 30 to 31, stratifying for gender and controlling for confounders.

Results. Data were available on harmful drinking at both the adolescent and the early adult age period for 3790 individuals and on binge drinking for 2387 individuals. Harmful drinking during adolescence was significantly associated with harmful drinking at ages 30 to 31 for men only. Among male adolescents, 14% of harmful drinkers continued harmful drinking at ages 30 to 31, compared with 4% of nonharmful drinkers who became harmful drinkers. In Poisson regression models, binge drinking during adolescence was associated with binge drinking at ages 30 to 31 for both men and women, generating relative risks of 2.3 (95% confidence interval: 1.8–3.0) and 3.0 (95% confidence interval: 2.4–4.8), respectively. Half of binge-drinking male adolescents and one third of binge-drinking female adolescents engaged in binge drinking into early adulthood, compared with 19% for non–binge-drinking male adolescents and 8% of non–binge-drinking female adolescents.

Conclusions. Problem drinking during adolescence is associated with problem drinking in early adulthood. Efforts to prevent and treat adolescent problem drinking could have an impact on the progression of alcohol-related disease.

Key Words: harmful drinking • binge drinking • alcohol use • prevention • adolescence

Abbreviations: NLSY79, National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 • RR, relative risk • CI, confidence interval

Accepted Apr 26, 2004.


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